Columnist Jeff Haney: Dissecting Week 1

It's already pro football season at the sports books

We're a little late -- yes, late -- in analyzing the point spreads of the first week of National Football League games.

Sure, the season's kickoff is more than two months away -- but a couple of Las Vegas casinos have had Week 1 lines posted for the past 2 1/2 months.

The Plaza downtown and the Las Vegas Hilton were the first to place NFL Week 1 betting lines on the board, and several others have since followed suit.

You can bet that shortly afterward, gamblers got busy creating their own betting lines using a basic formula some of them swear by (see sidebar below for explanation).

Using the results of that linemaking formula, here's a breakdown of the entire card of the first week of the NFL's regular season:

Patriots (minus 7 points on the early line at the Plaza) vs. Raiders:

Lay the 7 now, as this line is going nowhere but up. We see New England winning 10.75 games and put Oakland at 7.5 wins. Factor in the Patriots' 4-point home-field advantage, and the line on this game comes in at between 9 1/2 and 10 points. We see it steaming to 10 in some shops. It's 7 1/2 at the Hilton.

Redskins (minus 5) vs. Bears:

We think the correct line is between minus 3 and minus 3 1/2, though that could be skewed a little by Washington's rather low home-field value of just 1 point. It's 4 1/2 at the Hilton.

Broncos (minus 4) vs. Dolphins:

We have this game lined at 6 points, so if you don't mind laying more than a field goal on the road (usually a dangerous proposition) with Denver, the favorite could offer some value. Early money evidently disagrees with us, as the line moved to 4 after opening at 4 1/2 at the Plaza. It's 3 1/2 at the Hilton.

Panthers (minus 5 1/2) vs. Saints:

It looks safe to lay the 5 1/2 at the Plaza, as the line is 6 points at the Hilton and our formula yields a 7. We rate Carolina at 9.25 wins with a home-field advantage of 3 points, and New Orleans at 7.5 wins.

Jaguars (minus 3) vs. Seahawks:

An even matchup, with Jacksonville's home-field value accounting for the 3-point spread.

Steelers (minus 7 1/2) vs. Titans:

With Pittsburgh "lined" at 9.5 wins and Tennessee at 6.5, a point spread of 9 1/2 looks more accurate to us.

Bengals (minus 3) vs. Browns:

This is one of the few games on the Week 1 card in which our line varies significantly from the posted point spread. We have Cincinnati at 7.5 wins and Cleveland at 4.5 wins with a minuscule home-field advantage of 1 point, which makes the Bengals a 7-point favorite. At least the early money agrees with the general concept, having pushed the Bengals from minus 2 1/2 to minus 3.

Bills (minus 5) vs. Texans:

We have the betting line closer to Buffalo by 6. It's 5 1/2 at the Hilton.

Chiefs (minus 3) vs. Jets:

The point spread reflects an even matchup plus Kansas City's home-field advantage. But we have the Jets rated slightly higher, at 9.25 wins, than the Chiefs, at 8.75, which yields a betting line of Chiefs minus 1 1/2 points. So we'll take a shot with the Jets plus 3 points here.

Vikings (minus 5 1/2) vs. Buccaneers:

We'll lay the points with Minnesota, tabbed at 9.25 wins, against Tampa Bay, which we project to win 7 games. Our formula yields a point spread of between 7 1/2 and 8, making the 5 1/2 at the Plaza and the 6 at the Hilton look like bargains. The line is heading up, having opened at 4 1/2.

Giants (minus 2 1/2) vs. Cardinals:

We have the line on this game at pick 'em and figure there's value in Arizona plus the small number. The Hilton lists the Giants favored by 2.

Chargers (minus 4 1/2) vs. Cowboys:

We like Dallas and the points at this number, as we think the spread should be no more than 3 points. This line is more likely to drift toward 3 than toward 7. It was 5 1/2 earlier.

Rams (minus 3 1/2) vs. 49ers:

The road favorite could offer value, as our point spread is about 8 -- though this is due in part to San Francisco's anemic, make that nonexistent, home-field advantage of zero points.

Lions (minus 2 1/2) vs. Packers:

We thought the wrong team was favored in the opening line, which had Green Bay by a point, and early money agreed. The current line seems more accurate, though we figure the Lions to be a 3-point favorite.

Colts (minus 3) vs. Ravens:

With Indianapolis rated at 11.5 wins and Baltimore at 9.5, the Colts favored by 3 on the road looks just about right.

Monday Night Football, Sept. 12, Eagles (minus 3) vs. Falcons: We concur that Philly, with 11.5 expected wins, should be favored by a field goal at Atlanta, tabbed at 9.5 wins. The line is 2 1/2 at the Hilton.

Boogie with Stu

The S2 Art Center at 1 East Charleston Blvd. (Main and Charleston) will host a celebration Friday evening honoring the late Stu Ungar, three-time World Series of Poker champion.

Larry Grossman and Craig DeThomas will preview their new signed and numbered lithographs of Ungar, and author Nolan Dalla will sign copies of his new book (with Peter Alson), "One of a Kind: The Rise and Fall of Stuey 'The Kid' Ungar, the World's Greatest Poker Player." Family members and friends of Ungar are also scheduled to attend.

The event, scheduled for 6-9 p.m., is part of the Las Vegas Arts District's First Friday festivities.

Jeff Haney's sports betting column